Key facts and figures

• Almost seven in ten Victorians (69 per cent) say Victoria is heading in the wrong direction.
• Two thirds say Victoria is a worse place to live than it was five years ago, and one in five have seriously considered leaving.
• Given a choice, 72 per cent want a leader with real conviction, even if they disagree with them.
• Giving a straight answer to a hard question, even when it costs the leader, is the behaviour most Victorians read as genuine conviction, at 81 per cent.
• Only eight per cent see business and community leaders as leading the debate about how to fix the state. 15 per cent said no one is leading the debate at all.

The direction of Victoria

Almost seven in ten Victorians say things are heading in the wrong direction, against 22 per cent who say the right direction.

In three decades of Australian polling under compulsory voting, once wrong-direction sentiment settles above 60 per cent, a change of government has followed, and neither of the last two Victorian elections came close to that figure.

That sentiment is grounded in daily experience. Two thirds say the state is a worse place to live than it was five years ago, 46 per cent have cut back on groceries or essentials in the past year, and 39 per cent have dipped into savings to pay everyday bills.

Almost half blame the decisions of successive governments rather than external influences like wars or inflation, and 45 per cent say the Victorian Government has lost control of the state's finances.

Conviction, not just authenticity, is what voters want

Given a choice between a leader with real conviction, even one they do not always agree with, and a leader they mostly agree with who avoids taking a stand, 72 per cent chose conviction and just 13 per cent chose the leader who avoids a stand.

Warmth is not what they are looking for. A large majority, 85 per cent, said being relatable is not enough, and 87 per cent said they would rather a leader tell them the hard truth about the state's finances than pretend everything is fine.

For voters, conviction has a specific meaning. It is their judgement of whether leaders will actually do what they say, and not revert to business as usual once the votes are counted.

What conviction looks like, and what doesn't

The behaviours voters read as genuine conviction are the ones that carry a cost to the leader.

Giving a straight answer to a hard question tops the list at 81 per cent, followed by admitting what your own side got wrong at 73 per cent, holding a position under pressure at 69 per cent, naming the interests responsible for a problem and taking them on at 67 per cent, and fronting up in person to angry communities at 66 per cent.

Few practised this better than Peter Beattie, whose willingness to front the media and apologise became a hallmark of his time as Queensland Premier.

“It is healthy for political leaders to admit when they have made a mistake and then accept full responsibility and promise to do better. I always found Australians appreciated humility and directness in their leaders." – Peter Beattie, Former Queensland Premier

The behaviours voters dismiss as politics as usual are the familiar tools of modern communication.

Scripted slogans and talking points are read that way by 80 per cent, attacking opponents without offering an alternative by 79 per cent, and avoiding saying anything that might offend by 76 per cent.

Victorians reward leaders who take a position and hold it, and discount the performance of personality.

Implications for business leaders

There is room for businesses and organisations to lead with conviction too.

When pressure builds, the instinct is often to retreat: protect the position, say less and wait for the picture to clear.

Inside an organisation that can feel like the safe choice, but from the outside it reads as hesitation, and hesitation erodes confidence faster than an unwelcome message ever will.

The behaviours voters are rewarding in politicians apply just as much to business leaders. People respond to those who take a clear position and stand behind it.

Conviction is not the same as volume or bravado. What audiences respond to is evidence of thought, a sense that an organisation has weighed what is coming, formed a view and is willing to act on it.

That often means committing before every variable is settled, which takes some nerve. It also means owning the call once it is made.

A leader who states a view plainly and accepts responsibility for it gives the people around them, and the communities affected by their decisions, a reason to come along.

York Park Group's Thoughts

Voters follow conviction, and politicians follow voters.

For business leaders and organisations, making the case with conviction does not just improve the odds for its own projects or advocacy, it can help set the terms of the debate that government will eventually respond to.

To read the full research report, click here.

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