Overview

The week began with a backflip. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton announced an about turn on the Coalition’s previously declared policy to cut public service jobs and mandate an end to working from home.

Mr Dutton positioned the policy U-turn as having listened to voters, however it had become an effective line of attack for Labor, which had linked the proposal to President Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE, and argued it would wreck the work/life balance of those in the outer suburbs and women. It is yet to be determined whether Australians will appreciate it as an honest change, or view it cynically.

Also this week, Mr Albanese hurriedly dialled into ABC Radio Darwin to announce plans to end the Chinese-backed lease of Darwin Port, scuppering the Coalition’s announcement planned for the following day and leading to rumours of a leak from Liberal HQ.

At the Sky News People’s Forum, the first head-to-head of the campaign, the audience of 100 undecided voters declared Mr Albanese the winner (44 votes compared to 25 to Mr Dutton; 21 undecided), however the widespread verdict was a draw.

Neither Leader landed major blows, with both playing it safe and sticking to their key messages. Mr Albanese pulled out his Medicare card, as has become customary, whilst Mr Dutton was able to stay focused despite his father being rushed to hospital after suffering a heart attack just hours earlier. There were also the Treasurers and the Energy Ministers’ debates this week.

While the debates are interesting viewing for some, it’s worth noting that this is the first election when Millennial and Gen-Z voters will outnumber their older counterparts. According to Roy Morgan, for 59 per cent of Gen-Z and 50 per cent of Millennials, social media is their main source of news and so their support will most-likely not be informed by the debates, but instead on the content posted on Instagram, Facebook and TikTok.

This Sunday (13 April), both the ALP and the Liberal Party will host their respective official campaign launches. Labor’s will take place in Perth, illustrating the importance it places on the West, while the Liberal Party’s launch location remains a closely guarded secret, with Sydney or Melbourne most likely.

Polling and Betting Markets

A number of polls over the last week captured voter’s intentions during or following the first week of the campaign.

Newspoll reports Labor’s primary vote steady at 33 per cent, whilst the Coalition dropped one per cent to 36 per cent. On a 2PP basis, Labor is at 52.5 per cent, up from 50.2 per cent last week.

The latest YouGov poll was conducted between 4 and 10 April, incorporating the Trump tariffs turmoil and the Coalition’s work from home policy backflip. It reports Labor’s primary vote increased from 30 per cent last week to 32 per cent this week, whilst the Coalition dropped one per cent. Labor’s 2PP has risen to 52.5 percent compared to 51 per cent last week.

The betting markets have shifted; Labor is now priced at $1.29 to win, down from $1.61 last week, whilst the Coalition is now priced at $3.66, up significantly from last week’s $2.25. TAB is more certain, pricing Labor at $1.26 compared to the Coalition at $3.80.

There are a number of key seats which will be crucial to determining the election outcome. According to Sportsbet:

Policies Announced / Confirmed This Week

Both

• Commitment to return the Port of Darwin to what Labor described as “Australian hands” and the Coalition described as an “Australian Government-approved operator”.
• $120 million pledge to deliver a birthing service at Rouse Hill Hospital in north-western Sydney.

Australian Labor Party

• Pledged to roll out a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, providing a 30 per cent up-front discount on the price of batteries for households, small businesses and community facilities. It is expected to result in one million new batteries by 2030.
• $1 billion mental health commitment if re-elected, including $225 million for 31 new and upgraded Medicare Mental Health Service Centres, $200 million for 57 new, upgraded or expanded headspace services, $500 million for 20 Youth Specialist Care Centres and $90 million for more than 1,200 training places for mental health professionals and peer workers.
• Pledge of $100 million for initial planning work for a new Canberra convention centre and aquatic centre.
• $10 million for a Reef Educational Experience Fund to boost education and awareness for schools, tourism operators, and international visitors, while highlighting the importance of sustainable tourism.

The Coalition

• Pledged to abolish the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, which is due to take effect in July.
• Plan to establish a Regional Australia Future Fund and a Future Generations Fund within the existing Future Fund. This would be funded by 80 per cent of commodity windfall receipts, estimated to total $20 billion over four years, but an initial $1 billion would be allocated from the Budget whilst $5 billion would be taken from the Rewiring the Nation program.
• Promised to limit the number of international students able to start their studies in Australia to 240,000 each year. It will also seek to mandate that no more than approximately one quarter of students at public universities are enrolled from overseas.
• Pledge of $80 million to duplicate the Bass Highway from Launceston and Deloraine into a four-lane dual highway.
• $10 million commitment to the Broken Hill Airport upgrade project in the far west of NSW.

Australian Greens

• Renters to be able to request a solar panel system be installed at the landlord’s expense, with landlords only able to refuse on reasonable grounds. This would be paid for through a new $10 billion fund via Snowy Hydro, with the panels to be listed as an asset on the Snowy Hydro’s balance sheet.
• Every child to be provided with 50 hours of free early childhood education and care a week and universal access to preschool to be extended to 30 hours a week for all four-and three-year olds.
• Negative gearing and capital gains tax discount reform would be key priorities in a minority government.

Commentary

“Tuesday night showcased two men who are scared to make a mistake. That’s understandable, given that Dutton can’t afford to make any more mistakes, and Albanese just needs to keep not making mistakes to keep his nose in front. … Election watchers – and voters who want actual answers about the big questions facing this country – will hope for more from both men in next week’s second debate.” – James Massola, The Age National Affairs Editor

“There’s no doubt Dutton is increasingly scarred by the community perception of overlap with Trump and his agenda. Labor is happily ramping up the image of guilt by association, with Dutton representing risk and the dark shadow of Musk and his rabid cost-cutting.” – Jennifer Hewett, AFR Columnist

“In the last year alone, businesses paid $143 billion in company tax. That’s enough to pay for all Federal spending on health and aged care. Yet we have one of the least competitive tax systems among comparable nations. We’ve burdened our economic engine room with countless new pieces of regulation and red tape. In the next term of Parliament, we ask that you provide a commitment for an agenda that backs all businesses to be successful in delivering prosperity for all Australians.” – Letter jointly signed by 20 business groups including, Business Council of Australia, National Farmers Federation and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry

“Despite healthcare being a major focus in this election campaign, abortion has largely been absent from the national conversation. Voters deserve to know where their candidates stand on improving access to abortion. The imminent federal election presents an unmissable opportunity for candidates seeking the votes of Australians to clearly and publicly commit to the health and wellbeing of Australian women.” – Letter jointly signed by 40 health and medical organisations including the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation and the Australian Women's Health Alliance

“It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that neither side really trusts the public with a proper explanation of its policy beyond the barest outline or political caricature. With a generally dumbed-down media class that lacks the intellectual heft to expose policy spin and the ability then to convey it without bias to the voter, what hope do we have of educating people who consume their information via a one-second swipe rather than thoughtful analysis?” – Peta Credlin, The Australian Columnist

‍

‍