Overview

The ALP, Liberal Party and the Australian Greens all started the election campaign in Brisbane. The Greens won three seats in Brisbane at the last election, which both Labor and the LNP are confident of winning back (PS - the major parties’ ideal result would be one to the LNP and two to ALP).

Both sides were subject to hecklers and protesters early in the week, however, despite this, both leaders only had minor slips ups – Anthony Albanese’s was literal, where he fell off the back of a stage, while Peter Dutton’s was a bit more direct, saying he would rather live in Sydney than Canberra if elected. In both cases, both were left talking about themselves rather than their key messages.

Following Brisbane, Mr Albanese visited Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Tasmania and then the Hunter Valley in NSW; Mr Dutton opted for regional NSW, Victoria, then WA. Interestingly, while Mr Albanese was keen to campaign with the WA and SA Premiers, the Victorian Premier was noticeably absent. This reflects the brand damage the unpopular Victorian Premier is inflicting on Labor’s re-election hopes in Victoria.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements dominated the agenda, with Australia emerging relatively unscathed with tariffs of 10 percent.

There has been a divergence in their planned response to US tariffs if re-elected. Mr Albanese outlined a five-point plan to protect the industry and identify new markets which Mr Dutton supported. However, Mr Albanese argued diplomacy and utilising the tools of the existing Free Trade Agreement or the World Trade Organization to seek an exemption, while Mr Dutton favoured bringing Australian defence industry, AUKUS and critical minerals to the negotiating table.

We head into the weekend with President Trump and the US being the dominant talking point. Who that favours is unclear, but which leader is perceived to best deal with him will likely be a significant factor for voters.

Polling and Betting Markets

A number of polls dropped over the weekend immediately after the election was called, with the fieldwork for these being completed in the final days of March. As such, the following predominantly captures voter’s attitudes to the 2025-26 Federal Budget rather than the first week of the election campaign.

The polls were consistent in showing a swing back towards Labor following recent months where the Coalition has led on the two party preferred basis.

These polls, combined with the first week of the campaign have resulted in betting markets favouring the ALP too – Sportsbet has the ALP to form the next government at $1.61 compared to $2.25 for the Coalition; TAB has the ALP at $1.55 and the Coalition at $2.40.

There are a number of key seats which will be crucial to determining the election outcome. The betting odds for these allow for a more up to date and accurate portrayal of whom is favoured in the electorate.

According to Sportsbet:

Policies Announced / Confirmed This Week

Both

• $150 million towards a new $300 million healthcare centre planned at Flinders University in South Australia
• Increasing the rate of assistance for the Tasmanian Freight Equalisation Scheme – Labor has pledged a 25 per cent uplift ($95 million cost) in the assistance rate, whilst the Coalition has pledged a 22 per cent uplift ($65 million cost)
• $8 million for a new healthcare hub in Burnie, Tasmania

Australian Labor Party

• Will make price gouging by supermarkets illegal with a Treasury and ACCC-led taskforce to be given six months to design the new laws
• Pledged $200 million to the $355 million upgrade of St John of God Midland Public Hospital in Perth
• A new medical school for the Queensland University of Technology, funded in the 2025-26 Federal Budget – to be achieved through QUT converting a number of its existing non-medical Commonwealth-supported places (CSPs) into medical CSPs.

The Coalition

• Will direct AHPRA to weaken home loan serviceability tests, making it easier for Australians to get a home loan – lowering the buffer to 2.5 per cent from 3 per cent
• Pledged to scrap the $2.2 billion in Federal Government funding for the Victorian Suburban Rail Loop, and will instead increase funding for Melbourne Airport Rail Link by an additional $1.5 billion
• $10 million for a new weather radar in western Queensland and $5 million for the Central Queensland Livestock Exchange
• $600 million for a national agriculture and mining roads program for improved transportation of produce, livestock and minerals

Australian Greens

• Will push to lift environmental spending to one per cent of the Federal Budget ($17 billion)
• Will seek the establishment of an independent Early Childhood Education and Care Commission to strictly enforce quality standards

Commentary

Anthony Albanese has set up a second and equally potent cost-of-living test for Peter Dutton. Having dared him to oppose Labor’s future tax cuts, as meagre as they are, the Labor leader is now daring him to oppose wage rises for low-paid workers.” – The Australian Political Editor, Simon Benson

“Industry welcomes the Coalition’s commitment to fast-track new gas supply and streamline approvals, but the benefits of these reforms risk being undermined by deliberately oversupplying the market.” – Australia Energy Producers CEO, Samantha McCulloch

“Some feared proceeding with a budget would draw an unwelcome focus on the return to deficit and more debt, just before the election campaign begins. Instead, the debate this week is about Dutton becoming perhaps the first Liberal leader to say no to a tax cut.” – ABC National Political Lead and host of Insiders, David Speers

“The [Coalition’s] proposal to review mortgage lending rules and the serviceability buffers to tilt the scales back towards supporting first home buyers into homeownership is a strong and timely response to one of the most significant barriers to home ownership.” – Housing Industry Association Managing Director, Jocelyn Martin

“A deeper debate would consider how Australia might change direction in a world changed by Trump. But Albanese and Dutton do not want this debate. Both insist the alliance with the US is robust when Australians can see it is not… An honest election campaign would confront the need for a national insurance policy against an unreliable ally.” – The Age/SMH Chief Political Correspondent, David Crowe

“The point is that it is an election campaign where superficiality reigns supreme, Labor is running rings around the Coalition…. Much of this shows Labor is better than the Coalition at base politics. This could be explained, in part, due to the vast majority of Labor MPs, the prime minister included, being political professionals, schooled in student politics, the union movement and backroom roles within the ALP. Character assassination is a learned skill.” – AFR Political Editor, Phillip Coorey

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