Overview

Prime Minister the Hon. Anthony Albanese MP visited the Governor-General and announced the election for Saturday 3 May 2025. This means a five-week election campaign, unusually straddled over Easter and Anzac Day.

The announcement quickly follows the 2025-26 Federal Budget, widely described as the Budget no one wanted to have, with initial reporting suggesting the Prime Minister had been planning on calling an April election to avoid the need for a Federal Budget which detailed a worsening deficit and increasing government spending.

Despite a cyclone throwing a spanner in the works and forcing the Treasurer the Hon. Dr Jim Chalmers MP to hand down a Budget, it allowed Labor to dominate public debate with the announcement of surprise $536 a year tax cut; around $5 a week.

Leader of the Opposition, the Hon. Peter Dutton MP, has pledged to reverse these tax cuts if elected, and has instead announced a Coalition Government would cut the fuel excise from 50.8 cents a litre to 25.4 cents for one year, saving Australians around $14 a week.

Cost of living will be the dominant theme of this election; Labor will focus heavily on Medicare, while the Liberals will promote a new direction and leadership.

"Because of the strength and resilience our people have shown, Australia is turning a corner. Now on the third of May, you choose the way forward." – Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

“I really do think it’s a sliding doors moment for our country, and we need to try and address the cost of living.” – Leader of the Opposition, Peter Dutton

“With a minority government predicted, we can keep Dutton out and get Labor to act.” – Leader of the Australian Greens, Adam Bandt

State of Play

To form government, a party must win 76 seats. Failing this, the party with the most seats will negotiate with the crossbench to form government.

In the 47^th Parliament, Labor held 78 seats in the House of Representatives, whilst the Coalition held 57, and 19 seats were held by minor parties and Independents, the highest number on the crossbench since the establishment of the two-party system over a century ago.

A major factor that will determine the outcome of this election will be if the crossbench can maintain its support and size, or whether the major parties will win their traditionally-held seats back.

Some Key Seats to Watch

• ‍Bennelong, NSW: Once held by Prime Minister John Howard, it’s now held by Labor MP, Jerome Laxale MP. Mr Laxale isa former Mayor and popular with the local community. However, Liberal candidate Scott Yung is marginally favoured following an electorate redistribution. Analysts are predicting that if the Liberals aren’t leading in Bennelong early on election night, a swing across the country isn’t on.
• ‍Bradfield, NSW: This seat has only ever been held by the Liberal Party. The Liberal candidate is well-regarded Gisele Kapterian, following the retirement of current MP and former Minister Paul Fletcher. Ms Kapterian previously worked as a trade lawyer and for former Minister Julie Bishop. However, in the running is Independent candidate, Nicolette Boele, who secured 20.9 per cent of the primary vote in 2022 and 45.8 per cent on preferences.
• ‍Goldstein, VIC: Currently held by Teal MP, Zoe Daniel. She faces Tim Wilson, the former Liberal MP and Assistant Minister, who has been campaigning for the past three years to represent his former electorate.
• ‍Wannon, VIC: Former Minister Dan Tehan has held the seat since 2010, but faces former Triple J radio host Alex Dyson, who was born and raised in the area. In 2022, Mr Dyson reduced Mr Tehan’s two-party preferred vote to 53.9 per cent on a minimal budget, but he now has the support of Climate 200 donors.
• ‍Brisbane, QLD: Currently held by Greens MP, Stephen Bates, who has been a quiet presence in Parliament since he was elected in 2022. LNP candidate Trevor Evans, who formerly represented the seat, is the front runner this year.
• ‍Leichhardt, QLD: Retiring LNP MP Warren Entsch has given Labor hope of winning the seat, with a former pro basketballer, Matt Smith. The LNP candidate, Jeremy Neal, is a paramedic in the Queensland Ambulance Service.
• ‍Curtin, WA: Currently held by Teal MP, Kate Chaney, since 2022, a lawyer and businesswoman who comes from a family of two former Liberal Ministers. The Liberal candidate Tom White is a former Uber executive and has confidence of winning the seat, especially given Ms Chaney supported the live sheep export ban which is a huge issue in the state.
• ‍Bullwinkel, WA: A three-way race is underway in this new seat which covers Perth’s outer east and parts of the Avon Valley; 49 per cent of the voters are metropolitan with 14 per cent rural.  Considered notionally a Labor seat, their candidate Trish Cook is a nurse, however The Nationals’ candidate, Mia Davies, was previously State Leader for the WA Nationals. The Liberals candidate, Matt Moran, was press secretary to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
• ‍Sturt, SA: This is the former seat of Liberal Minister Christopher Pyne, and has been held by the Liberals for 67 of the past 70 years; held by James Stevens since 2019. Labor’s candidate is a lawyer and local Councillor, Claire Clutterham, whilst retired GP Dr Verity Cooper is running as an Independent.
• ‍Lyons, TAS: Retiring Labor MP Brian Mitchell has held the seat since 2016, and it will be contested by State Labor Leader Rebecca White and Liberal candidate Susie Bower. Ms Bowen had a 4.2 per cent swing in 2022 whilst Ms White is a high-profile candidate for Labor.

Polling

The below chart, from The Poll Bludger indicates just how much the polls have tightened since Labor was elected in May 2022.

An aggregate of various polls on a two-party preferred (2PP) basis has Labor and the Coalition both on exactly 50 per cent each. In the last month, this has moved in Labor’s favour, with a 0.6 per cent increase to them and a 0.6 per cent decease for the Coalition.

The latest Newspoll was conducted from 3 to 7 March, and has the ALP on 49 per cent compared to the Coalition on 51 per cent on a 2PPbasis.

More recent polling by YouGov was conducted from 14 to 19 Marchand has it at 50/50, but is based on respondent allocation of preferences.

Regardless, we start the election with the polls incredibly tight and neither party holding a clear advantage, making a minority government is a very real prospect.

The Signature Policies We Know So Far...