Overview

In the final week of the campaign, both parties released their election costings.

Labor released its election costings on Tuesday, saying that many of the policy announcements would be funded by saving $6.4 billion on reduced spending on consultants, contractors and labour hire and non-wage expenses. A further $760 million would be raised by increasing the cost of primary student visa applications.

It followed a warning from S&P Global that Australia’s Triple A credit rating was at risk if election pledges led to larger structural deficits. Australia is one of only 11 countries to hold the coveted rating which results in a cheaper cost of borrowing.

Prime Minister Albanese was bullish in his response, saying: “They must have been beside themselves, whoever wrote that particular report, when the Coalition left us with a $78 billion deficit”, while Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor said: “…mocking the ratings agency shows he’s not fit to lead”.

The Coalition’s costings were published on Thursday, saying they will improve the Budget deficit by nearly $14 billion by the end of the forward estimates. However, for the first two years, the deficits are forecast to be greater than Labor's. Their policies would be funded by public service reductions, saving $17.2 billion over the forward estimates and reversing Labor’s tax cuts announced in the 2025-26 Budget, saving $17.1 billion.

The magic number to form majority government is 76. When the election was called, the ALP held 77 seats, the Coalition held 53, and there were 19 members on the crossbench.

Overall, Labor has been widely predicted by commentators as having won the election campaign. President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs have been cited as a major reason for Labor’s shift in fortunes, as seen in Canada, and many analysts have cited voters not being so keen on a party promising DOGE-like cuts and preferring to stick with what they know in Mr Albanese.

However, as politicians often say: “The only poll that matters is the one on election day”, and with the complex flow of preferences and a large proportion of voters still undecided, nothing is certain.

Polling and Betting Markets

The latest polling continues to show Labor as the favourite to form government. A YouGov MRP poll predicts a 97.3 per cent chance that Labor will be elected with a majority government; the chances of a hung parliament is just 2.7 per cent, and a Coalition majority is at 1 per cent.

The Resolve Political Monitor this week found Mr Albanese leads Mr Dutton as preferred PM by 47 per cent to 31 per cent. This compared to January this year when Mr Dutton led by 39 per cent to 34 per cent.

Despite this strong support for Labor, the Coalition is confident of preferences favouring them. The AFR reports on polling from JWS Research of outer suburban electorates, which shows between 80 to 90 per cent of right-of-centre preferences will flow to the Coalition. This compares to a national average at the last election of approximately two thirds.

There has been a significant shift in the betting odds with Sports bet this week, now pricing Labor at $1.06 to form the next government and the Coalition at $10.50. It had the Coalition at $4.30 last week.

TAB has similar prices, with Labor at $1.08 and Coalition at $8.00.

In our key seats to watch, there have also been significant shifts in the odds:

Policies Announced / Confirmed This Week

Australian Labor Party

• $25 million to support 600 community schools across Australia that help more than 90,000students learn 84 languages.
• $204.5 million investment to improve existing Healthdirect services and expand them to every state and territory, under one consistent national service. This will include 1800MEDICARE, a free, nationwide 24/7 health advice line and after hours GP telehealth service.

The Coalition

• $2 billion boost in infrastructure financing of loans and grants for the Pacific and Timor-Leste.
• $113.6 million for the Moss Vale Northern Bypass to ease traffic congestion across the Southern Highlands.
• $100 million boarding school infrastructure fund to support remote Indigenous students.
• $40 million in funding for various conservation groups across Australia.
• $20 million for the first residential Domestic Violence Trauma Recovery Centre for women and children on the NSW Central Coast.
• Pledged to develop a National Food Security Plan to support Australia’s food producers to lower costs across the supply chain.

Australian Greens

• Announced a plan to lower the retirement age from 67 to 65 and raise the age pension above the poverty line.
• $50 million to transition the industrial fish farming industry to land-based operations starting with an immediate exit from Macquarie Harbour to save the critically endangered Maugean skate.
• Pledged to negotiate in minority government to demand the Climate Minister exercise as yet unused powers to stop new coal and gas mines.

Commentary

“It is curious that after saying the main path to victory was in the outer suburbs, with six days to go Dutton says he will target teal seats, and then describes the ABC and The Guardian as ‘the hate media’ as he did yesterday — a curiously Trumpian statement on the eve of hitting these progressive seats. According to Dutton, there were a "lot of quiet Australians" who he believes he will win the support of as people make their minds up this week.” – Patricia Karvelas, ABC presenter and host

“While Labor is most likely to form government after May 3, in electorates once considered rusted-on, the party is facing an identity reckoning. Increasingly, voters without university degrees – the clear majority in this country – are drifting, feeling shunned and unheard. Some are turning to the Liberals. Others to minor populist parties. A few disengage entirely.” – Nick Dyrenfurth, Executive Director of The John Curtin Research Centre

“This is the worst campaign I’ve seen. Both sides are at fault. It’s not spiteful or vituperative, but easily the most vacuous and irresponsible. Never has a campaign been more completely disconnected from reality. Endless giveaways, ridiculous quibbles about costings that are entirely speculative, policies of deep national self-harm and a resolute determination never to mention the fundamental threats and changes transforming the entire world.” – Greg Sheridan, Foreign Editor of The Australian

“The number of undecideds makes it difficult to predict with precision the outcome on Saturday … Neither Dutton nor Albanese should delude themselves about the reasons for the result, whatever it is. Albanese has been helped considerably by his own improved performance, but equally by the strength of the Labor campaign machine, combined with his opponent’s inability to perform with distinction on the national frontline in the most critical battle of his political life.” – Niki Savva, journalist and author

“This election resembles satire because the stage actors serve up lines not designed to survive scrutiny, then walk off-screen and launch straight into their next illogical point. These performances are not plausible to any moderately intelligent person. In fact, it doesn’t feel like Albanese and Dutton are even trying to be plausible.” – Joe Aston, publisher and author

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